Fire Umbra CielTier 2
at CMB DTR Regionals
decks
1
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-4-1
overall winrate
10.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.1%
avg ELO -6.3 per match
expected value
40.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1056
· median 1056
· range 1056–1056
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1189
Q3 1369
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 31.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 14.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Exia | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
